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研究表明,奥密克戎并不温和

研究表明,奥密克戎并不温和

David Meyer 2022-05-10
当根据人口统计数据、疫苗接种状态和并发病作出调整后,研究人员发现奥密克戎本身的危险性并不低。

快速传播的奥密克戎是否比以前的新型冠状病毒变体更温和?根据美国马萨诸塞州一项新的大规模研究,情况并非如此,该研究表明其明显的温和性归结为疫苗接种和其他因素。

这项研究考察了新冠肺炎疫情各个阶段的住院率和死亡率,涉及13万名患者的情况。

此研究尚未经过同行评审,但它似乎表明——尽管从表面上看——不同变体导致的疫情构成的住院和死亡威胁保持一致。

来自麻省总医院(Massachusetts General Hospital)、密涅瓦大学(Minerva University)和哈佛医学院(Harvard Medical School)的研究人员写道:“我们的分析表明,奥密克戎变体的内在严重性可能和以前的变体一样严重。”

研究中使用的数据显示,与之前的新冠肺炎疫情相比,奥密克戎疫情造成的住院人数和死亡人数更少——然而,当根据人口统计数据、疫苗接种状态和并发病作出调整后,研究人员发现奥密克戎本身的危险性并不低。

那么,这怎么解释早期发现的奥密克戎较温和,特别是那些来自南非的变体(该变体首次在南非被发现)?

在那里,西方国家最初不相信表明奥密克戎温和的数据,这让金山大学(University of the Witwatersrand)的疫苗学教授、世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的高级顾问沙比尔·马迪等人感到恼火。

5月5日,马迪告诉《财富》杂志,他认同奥密克戎“致命性不一定低于早期的变种,这一点可以从中国香港的经验中看出”。

尽管如此,在南非,自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,这波奥密克戎疫情造成的死亡人数占因新冠疫情死亡总人数的7%左右,而之前的德尔塔疫情造成的死亡人数占因新冠疫情死亡总人数的45%左右。

马迪说:“[奥密克戎]‘较温和’的原因是民众免疫力的提高,免疫力主要是在感染病毒后产生的,并辅以适度的疫苗接种,[奥密克戎]‘较温和’的原因不一定是变体内在的毒力较低。”

世界卫生组织在5月5日表示,到2021年年底,全球可能有约1490万人死于新型冠状病毒,几乎是官方死亡人数的三倍(官方死亡人数约为540万)。

世界卫生组织的计算是基于“超额死亡率”的统计数据,“超额死亡率”计算了与原本的预期相比,在新冠肺炎疫情期间多出来的死亡人数。

死亡人数不仅包括那些直接死于新型冠状病毒的人,还包括那些因为不堪重负的医疗保健系统无法充分治疗患有其他疾病的患者而死亡的人。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

快速传播的奥密克戎是否比以前的新型冠状病毒变体更温和?根据美国马萨诸塞州一项新的大规模研究,情况并非如此,该研究表明其明显的温和性归结为疫苗接种和其他因素。

这项研究考察了新冠肺炎疫情各个阶段的住院率和死亡率,涉及13万名患者的情况。

此研究尚未经过同行评审,但它似乎表明——尽管从表面上看——不同变体导致的疫情构成的住院和死亡威胁保持一致。

来自麻省总医院(Massachusetts General Hospital)、密涅瓦大学(Minerva University)和哈佛医学院(Harvard Medical School)的研究人员写道:“我们的分析表明,奥密克戎变体的内在严重性可能和以前的变体一样严重。”

研究中使用的数据显示,与之前的新冠肺炎疫情相比,奥密克戎疫情造成的住院人数和死亡人数更少——然而,当根据人口统计数据、疫苗接种状态和并发病作出调整后,研究人员发现奥密克戎本身的危险性并不低。

那么,这怎么解释早期发现的奥密克戎较温和,特别是那些来自南非的变体(该变体首次在南非被发现)?

在那里,西方国家最初不相信表明奥密克戎温和的数据,这让金山大学(University of the Witwatersrand)的疫苗学教授、世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的高级顾问沙比尔·马迪等人感到恼火。

5月5日,马迪告诉《财富》杂志,他认同奥密克戎“致命性不一定低于早期的变种,这一点可以从中国香港的经验中看出”。

尽管如此,在南非,自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,这波奥密克戎疫情造成的死亡人数占因新冠疫情死亡总人数的7%左右,而之前的德尔塔疫情造成的死亡人数占因新冠疫情死亡总人数的45%左右。

马迪说:“[奥密克戎]‘较温和’的原因是民众免疫力的提高,免疫力主要是在感染病毒后产生的,并辅以适度的疫苗接种,[奥密克戎]‘较温和’的原因不一定是变体内在的毒力较低。”

世界卫生组织在5月5日表示,到2021年年底,全球可能有约1490万人死于新型冠状病毒,几乎是官方死亡人数的三倍(官方死亡人数约为540万)。

世界卫生组织的计算是基于“超额死亡率”的统计数据,“超额死亡率”计算了与原本的预期相比,在新冠肺炎疫情期间多出来的死亡人数。

死亡人数不仅包括那些直接死于新型冠状病毒的人,还包括那些因为不堪重负的医疗保健系统无法充分治疗患有其他疾病的患者而死亡的人。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Is the fast-spreading Omicron milder than previous COVID-19 variants? Not according to a new large-scale study in Massachusetts, which suggests its apparent mildness comes down to vaccination uptake and other factors.

The study examined hospital admissions and death rates throughout various COVID waves, covering the experiences of 130,000 patients.

It has not yet been peer-reviewed, but it appears to show that—despite appearances—the essential threat of hospitalization and death stayed consistent across the different variants causing those waves.

"Our analysis suggests that the intrinsic severity of the Omicron variant may be as severe as previous variants," wrote the researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital, Minerva University, and Harvard Medical School.

The data used in the study showed the Omicron wave generated fewer hospital admissions and deaths than previous waves had—however, when adjusting for demographics, vaccination status, and comorbidities, the researchers found Omicron to be no less dangerous in itself.

So how does this square up with earlier findings that Omicron was milder, in particular those coming from South Africa, where the variant was first identified?

There, the West's initial disbelief about the data indicating mildness was a major source of irritation for figures such as Shabir Madhi, a professor of vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand and a top World Health Organization adviser.

On May 5, Madhi told Fortune that he agreed Omicron was "not necessarily less deadly than earlier variants, as evident from the experience in Hong Kong."

Nonetheless, in the South African context, the Omicron wave caused around 7% of all COVID deaths since the start of the pandemic, as opposed to the preceding Delta wave, which caused around 45%.

"The reason for [Omicron] being 'milder' was because of the evolution of immunity mainly inadvertently from natural infection and complemented by modest vaccine uptake, rather than necessarily from intrinsic lower virulence of the variant," Madhi said.

The World Health Organization said on May 5 that about 14.9 million people around the world were likely to have died from COVID by the end of 2021—nearly three times the official death toll, which was around 5.4 million.

The WHO based its calculation on "excess mortality" statistics that count how many more people died during the pandemic than could otherwise have been expected to die.

The toll includes not only those who directly succumbed to COVID, but also those who died because overwhelmed health care systems could not sufficiently treat them for other conditions.

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